Rating Release

Agusto & Co. hereby assigns “Bbb-” (long-term) and “A3” (short-term) ratings to the Niger State Government, with a stable outlook 

The rating expires on 30 September 2027. 

Agusto & Co. hereby assigns “Bbb-” (long-term) and “A3” (short-term) ratings to the Niger State Government (“Niger State”, “Niger”, “the State” or “NSGN”). The assigned ratings reflect the growth in the State’s internally generated revenue (IGR) and value-added tax (VAT) receipts, as well as its satisfactory cash flow position. The ratings also consider NSGN’s acceptable expenditure structure, characterised by sustained capital investments in infrastructure and social services, alongside modest recurrent costs and debt service metrics. We also considered Niger State’s considerable economic potential in agriculture, agro-processing, hydroelectric power and mining, underpinned by its extensive arable land and natural resources. However, the ratings are constrained by the low contribution of the State’s internally generated revenue (IGR) to total receipts, high dependence on volatile Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements, persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt burden. The ratings are further moderated by Niger State’s increasing concentration of unhedged foreign-currency borrowings, which heightens vulnerability to exchange-rate shocks. We also note the risks arising from security challenges and climate-related disruptions, as well as potential policy and administrative uncertainty surrounding the 2027 general elections, which could disrupt economic activity and delay the implementation of key development projects.

Niger State was created on 3 February 1976 following the division of the former North-Western State. Located in Nigeria’s North-Central region, the State covers approximately 76,363 square kilometres, representing about 8.3% of the country’s landmass and making it Nigeria’s largest state by land area. Niger State has 25 Local Government Areas, with Minna as its capital, and an estimated population of 7.5 million as at 2025. The State’s economy is predominantly agrarian, supported by extensive arable land and major river systems, with rice, maize, millet, sorghum, yam, cassava and sugarcane among its principal crops. Popularly known as “The Power State”, Niger hosts the Kainji, Jebba, Shiroro and Zungeru hydroelectric facilities. The State also has deposits of gold, iron ore, lead-zinc, limestone and other minerals, although large-scale mining remains limited. Niger’s proximity to Abuja, international boundary with the Republic of Benin and tourist attractions such as Zuma Rock, Gurara Falls and Kainji Lake National Park provide opportunities in commerce, logistics and tourism.